The physical and chemical environment strongly influences the biology of coastal and oceanic systems.  Historically, however, there has been relatively little integrative work on the linkages between physics, chemistry and biology in Queensland’s marine ecosystems.  Much of the focus has been on short-term studies of biology and ecology in the coastal zone without the ‘big picture’ context provided by integrated physical, chemical and biological knowledge, and without a comparative approach between ecosystems.  Changes in temperature, upwelling, and shelf currents will be important to the performance and health of Queensland’s marine ecosystems over the next decade. 

For example, Long-term changes in temperature associated with global warming are considered the greatest threat to the survival of coral reefs in the next 100 years (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999).  Efficient reef building is dependent on symbioses optimised to local seasonal conditions and destabilised by quite minor heat anomalies.  Corals have not yet shown any great ability to adapt to thermal stress, and current rates of global warming are considered much too fast to anticipate an evolutionary response.  The risk of catastrophic change to an iconic system like the Great Barrier Reef justifies the need for detailed information about the thermal environments around coral reefs.  Such information will provide useful context for the multitude of studies being done to understand the molecular and genetic basis of coral bleaching risk.

A further possible impact on the ecosystems of Queensland’s waters comes from potential changes in upwelling.  High primary productivity is a characteristic of upwelling zones.  In the future, the EAC is predicted to weaken in the north with climate change (Cai et al. 2005), potentially resulting in reduced upwelling.  It is therefore necessary to increase our understanding of the effects of physical dynamics on higher trophic levels such as fish, prawns, turtles and marine mammals is the response of plankton communities.

Key Science Questions

Benthos

• Does the biomass or condition of deep seagrass meadows on the Great Barrier Reef shelf reflect upwelling history?
• Is temperature or upwelling more important in determining the northern limits of kelp forests in South East Queensland?

Mid trophic levels

• What is the influence of temperature and currents upon fish migrations?

Top predators

• What conditions in the Coral Sea determine the nesting success of seabird colonies in the Great Barrier Reef?

Plankton

• What is the response of the plankton community to variable supply of the major nutrients limiting growth?
• Does ocean variability in the Coral Sea affect the attributes of plankton communities on the Queensland shelf?